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Strength of schedule
All clubs know who they are facing this season, and where those games will be played, so now it's just a matter of finding out where those games fall on the schedule.
ESPN's John Clayton, a recipient of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's McCann Award for distinguished reporting, . I've seen him make several accurate assessments of teams that will rise, and others that will fall, by dissecting this in past years.
For example, from a Patriots perspective, the team will have the third toughest strength of schedule in 2009 when looking at winloss percentages from last year.
My view is to be careful to buy too much into that because so much changes from year to year, and injuries are such a big factor.
At this time last year, for example, the team with the toughest strength of schedule was the Steelers (.598). They went on to win the Super Bowl. While they still had a difficult schedule, having four games against the Browns (412) and Bengals (4111) seemed to help them. Those games against the Browns were initially seen to be particularly tough, as Cleveland was supposed to have been on the rise.
But in an everchanging NFL, things are not always as they appear to be.
To me there is no such thing as strengh of schedule as teams change to much in one season. So are the cards going back to the bowl against the steelers again Are we going to have the exact same playoff teams as last yer. Will detriot have another winless season. No TO effect in Buffalo and Dallas. this is one of the most useless things in football
Posted by rob April 14, 09 10:32 AM
Strength of schedule is such a joke. Just look at the Pats last season. Everyone was saying they had the easiest schedule but then Miami does a 180 and improves by 10 wins. That had to have some affect. As it was noted, changes happen year to year with injures along with free agency and the draft. It would be interesting to see who had the toughest (and easiest) schedule based on where teams actaully finished last year. And where the Pats fell overall.
Posted by Tom In PA April 14, 09 10:46 AM
Strength of schedule is of limited value. I am stuck in Steelers country because of work and last year everyone here was bemoaning the tough schedule and giving me grief because the Pats had it so easy in 2009. When the season actually rolled around, we all learned that supposedly tough Steelers opponents like Cleveland, Cincy and Jax were not the monsters everyone thought last spring (remember Jax beat Pgh at home in the wild card round that January) and the Jets and Dolphins were dramatically improved. Pats probably still had an easier schedule than the Steelers (NFC West helps), but the difference really wasn't that great.
Posted by Larry April 14, 09 11:50 AM
I agree with Reiss and the above. None of the teams from 2008 are playing this year. All of those teams have gotten older,[url=http://nikefreetilbud.hcslnet.com]billige nike free[/url], changed personnel, and exposed their schemes to a season's worth of tape. In the next 5 months they will all experience injuries, undergo changes in locker room chemistry and ask new players to contribute. And frankly, the 2 or 3 teams that everyone picks to go from worst to first will not deliver while some team that everyone writes off as a laughing stock will surely play in the postseason.
I think SOS has some bearing. It sounded like he had some statistical analysis indicating that teams that go from "worst to first" tend to go back again. The NFC South is as good as any division to look at, especially considering they've had several teams do that recently.
Now do I think that Miami's fall (yes, I'm saying it will happen) is going to be because of strength of schedule? No. Clayton wrote that teams that go worst to first tend to have a 3 game slide in the next season. Well, considering a first place schedule only affects two games, obviously the schedule itself isn't the only cause. Miami will be bad becuase they aren't a great team.
Posted by Rob in Central MA April 14, 09 11:58 AM
The Lions went 016 last year. If your (good) team plays against them once, it makes your overall SOS look weak compared to another similar (good) team that plays, for example, the Raiders at 412 last year. Both teams are likely to beat their opponents (Lions,Raiders) and add 1 win to their victory total.
The same is true for teams that had the 160 Patriots on their 2008 schedule. If you only play the Pats once, you can only lose to them once, as opposed to losing one game to the Colts or the Giants. a loss is a loss.
Posted by anonemous April 14, 09 01:08 PM
The " of games against playoff teams" or " of games against winning teams" would be a better indicator. It also matters whether or not you are playing a game at home as opposed to a road game. The folks with their money on the line (Vegas) certainly take this into account.
For example, the Patriots will probably be underdogs against the Colts and Titans on the road but would be favored if the games were in Foxboro. Certainly this is a harder task than another team who gets the Colts and Titans at home, but according to the SOS ratings, both schedules are equally hard.

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